Performance of polls at US Presidential election shows no room for complacency for UK pollsters – Lords Committee
Monday 21 December 2020
The poor performance of US election polls at this year’s Presidential election shows that the British polling industry needs to continue to work hard to improve performance and strive for accurate reporting of poll results.
The finding comes in a follow-up to the 2018 report by the House of Lords Political Polling and Digital Media Committee that is published today.
The follow-up says that the US polls’ inaccuracy in this year’s Presidential election – where the final result was much closer than pre-vote voter intention polls had predicted - was disappointing after improvements had been made to the techniques pollsters used, including to take greater account of the education level of respondents. The report calls on the “British polling industry to consider in depth the implications of this failure for British polling.”
The follow-up report also welcomes progress the polling industry has made since 2017. It supports the increased focus on weighting by education level as a more accurate predictor of voting intention than social class.
The report also praises the British Polling Council and Market Research Council for work they have undertaken to produce guidance for journalists reporting on polls and their work with the National Council for the Training of Journalists to ensure journalism courses include the issue in their syllabus.
Commenting Lord Lipsey, who Chaired the Political Polling and Digital Media Committee, said:
“The poor performance of voter intention polls at this year’s Presidential election in the US show this is not the time for complacency in the polling industry.
“While we have seen improvement in the performance of opinion polls at the 2019 General Election it is important the British Polling Council keep a firm eye on ensuring polling companies are delivering best practice and adjusting to social changes such as the increasing importance of educational level, rather than traditional social class, as an indicator of voting behaviour.
“In the longer term the BPC should keep under review whether they should take on a clearer regulatory role in the operation of polling companies in the UK. Political opinion polls are important and their accuracy and impartiality shouldn’t be taken for granted.”
