Evolving interests of Russia and China among key reasons UK must keep its Arctic strategy under review – Lords Committee

Russia has invested heavily in its military presence in the Arctic at a time when climate change is internationalising the region. Receding sea ice is opening up parts of the Arctic that were previously inaccessible. Since the region plays a key role in the regulation of the global climate, this is being used by non- Arctic states, such as China, to argue for increased involvement.

In this dynamic situation, it is imperative that the UK Government remains alert to emerging changes and regularly assesses whether it has appropriately prioritised and resourced its strategy towards the region.

The Committee calls on the Government to ensure there is sustained high-level ministerial engagement in the Arctic to ensure that the UK retains its influence in the region.

In particular, the report:

• Argues that the UK and its allies must carefully monitor Russia and China’s strategy and intentions in the Arctic.
• Calls on the Government to appoint a dedicated Arctic Ambassador to signal the UK’s diplomatic commitment to the region and ensure there is effective co-ordination between UK research, diplomats, and military planners.
• Raises long-standing concerns that the UK has insufficient resources to maintain a meaningful security presence in the High North.

With Russia suffering major losses to its conventional military capabilities in Ukraine, the Arctic will only become more important in Russian strategic planning. Malign activity beyond the threshold of actual war in the Arctic and High North is a significant and growing threat. This includes GPS jamming, military exercises simulating attacks, maritime sabotage, cyber-attacks and information warfare. In particular, the Arctic is the base for Russia’s fleet of specialised submarines used to sabotage deep-sea cables.

Russia’s war in Ukraine has made Russia more economically dependent on China, and this could lead to closer Sino-Russian co-operation in the Arctic.

UK scenario planning will need to consider the possibility that China could leverage this dependence in the future to establish a military presence in the Arctic.

The UK has an important role to play in supporting deterrence in the region. However, the Royal Navy has only one ice-capable patrol ship, and the Royal Air Force’s fleet of maritime patrol aircraft may be insufficient to maintain a constant presence in the High North alongside a long-term deployment to the Indo-Pacific and protection of the nuclear deterrent.

The report also considers the risks and opportunities presented by increased shipping and economic activity in the Arctic. Climate change is causing the polar ice cap to rapidly recede, making previously remote areas of the Arctic more accessible. Shipping activity in the Arctic could rise by 50% in the coming decades, increasing the risk of accidents and environmental damage.

The report calls on the Government to work with its Arctic allies to increase search and rescue capability, and to mitigate risks to safety and the environment from shipping through the development of a revised Polar Code to regulate Arctic shipping.

Commenting on the report, Lord Ashton of Hyde, Chair of the International Relations and Defence Committee said:

"The Arctic is critical to UK interests – developments there directly impact on our environment, security and energy supply. It is imperative the Government has a clear sense of how the Arctic fits into the UK’s broader security and foreign policy interests in Northern Europe and beyond.

“At the moment, UK policy towards the Arctic is well-calibrated, but we need to prepare for scenarios in which the Arctic becomes much more contested and subject to conflict. Russia is the most acute threat to UK and European security, and the Arctic plays a vital role in Russian military doctrine. It is therefore vital that we have a clear-eyed understanding of Russia’s intentions and strategy in the region.

“The UK is seen by our Nordic allies as an important security partner and we welcome the leading role the UK has played in security and deterrence in Northern Europe, in particular through the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force. The Arctic is a very challenging environment to operate in and requires very specialised skills. It is vital that we maintain sufficient equipment and regular cold-weather training so that those skills are maintained and consolidated.”