Dr Mohamed El-Erian to give evidence to Lords inquiry on UK debt sustainability

At 3pm on Tuesday 30 January 2024, the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee will hear evidence from Dr Mohamed El-Erian, President of Queens College, Cambridge and a professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He is also a part-time Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz.

This evidence session, which is open to the public, will be held in Committee Room 4 of the House of Lords. It will also be streamed live on Parliament TV.

Questions the committee is likely to cover in this session include:

• How worried are you by current, public debt trajectories in the UK and across the G7 generally?
• Several governments are looking to borrow record amounts in 2024. How do you see this affecting the UK from the perspective of debt sustainability?
• What will the likely path of US monetary and fiscal policy mean for the global economy and for the UK, with respect to its debt sustainability?
• Talk abounds of a population ‘crisis’ in China. Given the country’s role in driving global growth over the past two decades, are you able to quantify the risks this poses the G7 and hence the UK with regard to its debt-management?
• Does the metric of debt as a percentage of GDP adequately capture sustainability of the national debt? Is this the most appropriate measure?
• What would you regard as a meaningful fiscal rule for the UK government to adopt when considering long-term fiscal stability?

More about the How sustainable is our national debt? inquiry

UK public sector net debt, often referred to as ‘national debt’, currently stands at just under 100 per cent of GDP.

The UK’s growth outlook remains weak; quantitative easing has significantly increased the sensitivity of the UK’s debt to changes in short-term interest rates; and it is unclear whether the Government’s fiscal rule, as it relates to the national debt, is fit for purpose.

In December 2023 the committee published its call for evidence. The deadline for written submissions is Friday 9 February 2024.

The committee’s inquiry will investigate whether the UK’s national debt is on a sustainable path; if not, what steps are required; and whether the Government’s fiscal rule regarding the national debt is meaningful.