Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill to give evidence on the impact long-term sickness has on the economy

This evidence session, which is open to the public, will be held in Committee Room 4 of the House of Lords. It will also be streamed live and on demand on Parliament TV.

Topics the committee is likely to cover in this session include:

• The main macroeconomic implications of the Budget.
• Impact of the Budget on debt sustainability and the inflation outlook.
• Risks the Government has taken on in swapping public sector net debt (PSND) for public sector net financial liabilities (PSNFL).
• The Bank’s underlying assumptions about likely trends in labour market inactivity.
• Reliability of official statistics and what this entails for policy formulation.
• The extent to which elevated levels of long-term sickness could be considered a regional problem.
• Impact that long-term sickness has on the economy and the likely cost of failure to remedy the problem.

More about the Economic inactivity: welfare and long-term sickness inquiry

As a follow up to its 2022 inquiry into economic inactivity, the committee is carrying out a short inquiry on the relationship between the welfare system and long-term sickness in Great Britain.

Rates of economic inactivity – measured as a proportion of people of working age – fell steadily from 2012, reaching an all-time low of 20.7 per cent in early 2020. However, the COVID-19 pandemic saw a sudden and dramatic reversal of this trend with rates of long-term sickness becoming an increasingly important factor as the pandemic wore on.

The committee is seeking to understand the impact, if any, that changes in the benefits system have had on trends in long-term sickness and inactivity. It will hear views on what is being done in this area, and what should be done, to mitigate elevated levels of long-term sickness-related inactivity and the associated rising costs of welfare.